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Prediction markets for Math

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

52.32%chance

277453628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6315

2756

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

62.61%chance

218122072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10909

7973

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70114952

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

80

10

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

4510826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will I major in math?

Oct 18, 10:56 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

12.33%chance

467421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

862

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

541

LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027?

Dec 21, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

222627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

531

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?

Dec 23, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.98%chance

61624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

230

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

559

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