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Prediction markets for Math

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

57.53%chance

178213455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5943

3203

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.07%chance

150128231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18325

7936

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112863

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.84%chance

23195383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

873

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32.91%chance

9838172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

700

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.14%chance

6115112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9979

9757

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.49%chance

4814161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will I major in math?

Oct 18, 10:56 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

12.98%chance

467411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1476

873

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.34%chance

394177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1632

414

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

30.58%chance

112544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

664

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

Next year will I think that AI is better than me at math?

Dec 21, 4:35 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

292215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

704

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