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Prediction markets for Math

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

90.65%chance

336646894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13095

3398

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.44%chance

415213309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16343

7975

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74123174

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

81

10

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

42.19%chance

9634297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12061

8189

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.67%chance

5013169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

892

Will I major in math?

Oct 18, 10:56 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.12%chance

477721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

825

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

541

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?

Dec 23, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.15%chance

91701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

231

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

559

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

8367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

786

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