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Prediction markets for Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.52%chance

189325796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124350

26900

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

296924

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2024

100

100

99

99

99

0

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

275401

OptionProbability

2027

2030 or later

2026

2028

2029

28

28

27

13

3

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94215

OptionProbability

>= 25 years

< 25 years

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 year

< 2 years

< 1 month

< 4 months

< 1 week

42

14

12

10

8

8

3

2

1

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203945

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43%chance

333838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1190

253

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1.99%chance

122919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

890

11

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

102043

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2024

2025

2026

13

12

10

0

0

0

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

231853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

569

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.96%chance

3662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

59

Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?

Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM

8611

OptionProbability

IMO 2027 held in Hungary

IMO 2029 held in Mongolia

IMO 2030 held in Switzerland

IMO 2028 held in Saudi Arabia

IMO 2031 held in USA

97

92

92

91

88

will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27

Jun 27, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.39%chance

10265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

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