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Prediction markets for Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.71%chance

99161631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111453

17263

axusus (Andrew Xu) makes MOP 2026?

May 9, 1:11 AMApr 20, 10:59 PM

7.83%chance

3511489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

599145

OptionProbability

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Russian Federation

Republic of Korea

Other

81

12

4

2

1

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

488440

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

2025

33

26

19

12

8

1

1

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

Jan 2, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

435087

OptionProbability

1

2

3-4

5-8

>8

0

72

18

6

2

2

1

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264773

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

96

96

96

95

0

When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?

Aug 8, 7:26 PMAug 1, 9:34 PM

234633

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

52

20

16

10

3

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

262827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

914

What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

102043

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2026

2027

2024

2025

13

12

11

10

0

0

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.52%chance

181676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

521

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

48

39

14

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