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Prediction markets for Mathematical Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112159

17112

axusus (Andrew Xu) makes MOP 2026?

May 9, 1:11 AMApr 20, 10:59 PM

4.18%chance

2910526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

479

21

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

488440

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

2025

33

26

19

12

8

1

1

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

438397

OptionProbability

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Russian Federation

Republic of Korea

Other

83

12

3

1

1

What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?

Jan 18, 1:09 AMJan 2, 12:35 AM

264773

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2024

100

96

96

96

95

0

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

Jan 2, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

404669

OptionProbability

1

2

3-4

>8

5-8

0

51

33

10

3

2

1

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Apr 2, 4:16 AMMar 2, 11:59 PM

213545

OptionProbability

International Mathematical Olympiad

International Olympiad in Informatics

International Physics Olympiad

International Biology Olympiad

International Astronomy Olympiad

International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics

International Chemistry Olympiad

International Earth Science Olympiad

100

100

6

6

6

6

4

4

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.05%chance

262827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

914

Edward Jiang makes AIME 2026?

Oct 27, 5:12 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

55.27%chance

102443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.78%chance

161667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

525

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Jan 17, 11:18 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

8128

OptionProbability

Algebra

Number Theory

Combinatorics

48

39

14

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