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Mathematics News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

28024864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4575

1822

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10619842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1771

1288

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.05%chance

9814256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2083

697

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

30%chance

8612963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1722

1174

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.76%chance

249794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2229

449

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.27%chance

706096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

426

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

72.93%chance

302352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

383

Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?

May 28, 9:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.29%chance

342179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

931

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

242155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

997

Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050?

May 5, 10:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.14%chance

501786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

919

Was mathematics created (YES) or discovered (NO)?

Oct 13, 4:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.62%chance

27468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

940

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