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Prediction markets for Maxi

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.03%chance

391851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1493

670

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

Apr 3, 12:28 PMDec 11, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

131112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

884

Will the wild population of the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) become Extinct by 2100?

Jun 30, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

5494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

957

273

Empire of Mexico restored to the House of Iturbide (pretender Maximilian von Götzen-Iturbide) before 3rd March 2034.

Jun 26, 9:12 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

8493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

483

21

Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?

Jan 24, 8:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

14472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

931

By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust?

Feb 9, 8:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.41%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

909

When will US crude oil production reach a local (10 year) maximum?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6347

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2035

2035-2039

2045-2049

2040-2045

2055-2059

2050-2055

2020 - 2024

62

50

40

36

34

34

32

8

Law on age maximums for senators debated in Congress through 2027

Sep 1, 1:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

6212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

87

Maximum public road speed in mph in California in 2029

Jul 15, 6:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

436

OptionProbability

YES

NO

316

307

What country will be the first to have a proven treatment that will have a significant increase maximum life expectancy?

Aug 23, 9:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

317

OptionProbability

USA

China

Other

United Kingdom

Germany

Switzerland

22

21

21

13

12

10

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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