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Prediction markets for Maxi

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

391862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

658

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

Apr 3, 12:28 PMDec 11, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

131112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

884

Will it be discovered by the end of the decade that in 2022 major AGI progress was made but it was kept secret for more than two years to maximize its usefulness?

Jan 24, 8:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

14472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

931

By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust?

Feb 9, 8:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.41%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

909

When will US crude oil production reach a local (10 year) maximum?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6347

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2035

2035-2039

2045-2049

2040-2045

2055-2059

2050-2055

2020 - 2024

62

50

40

36

34

34

32

8

Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?

May 12, 8:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

4252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

886

Who will play Maxima in Superman: Man of Tomorrow?

Apr 8, 11:13 PMJul 8, 11:06 PM

3170

OptionProbability

Adria Arjona

Other

Sydney Chandler

Grace Van Patten

84

12

2

2

Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?

May 17, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.21%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will "The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 12, 3:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-6-like?

May 10, 8:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.04%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

82

Maximum public road speed in mph in California in 2029

Jul 15, 6:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

436

OptionProbability

YES

NO

316

307

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