Maxim AI News

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

May 17, 8:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.29%chance

367183

OptionVotes

YES

2114

473

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.38%chance

224322

OptionVotes

YES

2669

576

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

612904

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.03%chance

391851

OptionVotes

YES

1493

670

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

Apr 3, 12:28 PMDec 11, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

131112

OptionVotes

YES

1300

884

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:57 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

54%chance

12264

OptionVotes

YES

156

141

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

55.31%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

252

179

Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?

Nov 9, 12:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.37%chance

9178

OptionVotes

YES

242

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Aug 30, 4:13 PMDec 7, 4:59 AM

15.36%chance

9161

OptionVotes

YES

217

143

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Maxim AI News

Prediction markets for Maxim AI

Prediction markets for Maxim AI

Prediction markets for Maxim AI

Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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