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Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

10 months ago

What does the D mean in One Piece?

Feb 21, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15420154

OptionProbability

Other

D is the proof of alliance with joyboy and the ancient kingdom.

D stands for "half moon" as in the people who have the initial are half moon descendants

D stands for 'dawn'

D stands for “Davy”

D stands for 'danger'

D represents a Smile

D stands for 'descendants'

D stands for 'slave'

D stands for 'death' (or similar: die, dead, etc)

D stands for 'dream'

D stands for 'devil'

D is slang for 'The'

D stands for nothing at all, or is just a letter, or is just 'Dee'

D stands for 'destroy' or 'destruction'

D stands for “drums”

D stands for 'delicious'

D is the name of Joyboy

D stands for 'deluge' (or similar: flood, etc)

D stands for 'dragon'

D stands for some random japanese word or name (relatively untranslatable)

D stands for Doki Doki / Heartbeats or rhythm / Heart beating fast or equivalent

D stands for “Dick”

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.41%chance

123564

OptionVotes

YES

4203

698

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

89.68%chance

473299

OptionVotes

YES

2270

742

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

1745

666

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

121279

OptionVotes

YES

1596

627

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.99%chance

241208

OptionVotes

YES

1210

918

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Apr 3, 6:51 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

191115

OptionProbability

South America

Europe

Africa

Asia

North America

Australia

Antarctica

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

YES

1192

506

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.48%chance

13493

OptionVotes

YES

1100

866

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

In 2030, will people assume you mean CR7 if you say "Ronaldo"?

Aug 5, 9:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.49%chance

6122

OptionVotes

YES

189

Will "Two hemispheres - I do not think it means wha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 15, 11:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

190

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What does the D mean in One Piece?

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

In 2030, will people assume you mean CR7 if you say "Ronaldo"?

Will "Two hemispheres - I do not think it means wha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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