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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.41%chance

123564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4203

698

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

89.68%chance

473299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2270

742

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

121279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

627

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Apr 3, 6:51 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

191115

OptionProbability

South America

Europe

Africa

Asia

North America

Australia

Antarctica

34

21

17

14

10

3

1

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21%chance

231045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

904

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.48%chance

13493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

866

Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

70

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

Will "Two hemispheres - I do not think it means wha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 15, 11:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.16%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

90

What will be the annual mean CO2 level in 2030?

Jul 30, 4:46 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

44.45%chance

380

OptionProbability

NO

YES

309

211

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