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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Mean

Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?

Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.09%chance

6857801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4844

206

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

90.33%chance

463285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2396

728

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

95.06%chance

122564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3203

742

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.14%chance

291516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

662

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Apr 3, 6:51 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

191115

OptionProbability

South America

Europe

Africa

Asia

North America

Australia

Antarctica

34

21

17

14

10

3

1

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.35%chance

20637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

912

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.98%chance

13443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

816

Will Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley be removed by any means before the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Dec 2, 9:06 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

44.12%chance

9419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

888

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

Will the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?

Mar 13, 3:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.27%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

132

Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)

Dec 6, 7:37 PMDec 31, 4:32 PM

52.12%chance

28

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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