Means of Control News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.92%chance

326859763

OptionVotes

YES

7157

3586

Russia collapses before 2030

Jan 26, 6:53 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

13.5%chance

11926027

OptionVotes

YES

2129

861

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

14005

8548

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

YES

2281

1762

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 4:58 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12%chance

8610125

OptionVotes

YES

1830

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

2389

1500

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.51%chance

547015

OptionVotes

YES

3402

401

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.82%chance

242851

OptionVotes

YES

2011

497

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

1675

597

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

Jan 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14697

OptionProbability

At least 4 GOP Senators explicitly come out against Trump on Greenland.

The EU implements relaliatory tariffs.

At least 5 GOP House members explicity come out against Trump on Greenland.

The tariffs against Europe are put into full effect.

Mass economic isolation of the US.

The US gains control of at least part of Greenland through diplomatic means.

NATO dissolves

The US invades Greenland.

US and Europe get into a war.

Trump gets into a war with Canada.

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Means of Control News

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Russia collapses before 2030

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Latest stories