Means of Control News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.56%chance

335863543

OptionVotes

YES

5969

3766

Russia collapses before 2030

Jan 26, 6:53 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

13.43%chance

12026037

OptionVotes

YES

2139

860

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

14513

8421

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.9%chance

1418449

OptionVotes

YES

2306

1744

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 4:58 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5.35%chance

8910701

OptionVotes

YES

2217

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

2389

1500

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

3243

194

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

1675

597

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

Jan 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16740

OptionProbability

At least 4 GOP Senators explicitly come out against Trump on Greenland.

The EU implements relaliatory tariffs.

At least 5 GOP House members explicity come out against Trump on Greenland.

The tariffs against Europe are put into full effect.

Mass economic isolation of the US.

The US gains control of at least part of Greenland through diplomatic means.

The US invades Greenland.

NATO dissolves

US and Europe get into a war.

Trump gets into a war with Canada.

Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027?

Aug 26, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.38%chance

9403

OptionVotes

YES

159

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Means of Control News

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Russia collapses before 2030

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

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