Means of Control News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

322858510

OptionVotes

YES

6769

3640

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

62%chance

14468018

OptionVotes

YES

1393

626

Russia collapses before 2030

Jan 26, 6:53 PMJan 1, 2:00 PM

13.05%chance

11925966

OptionVotes

YES

2189

852

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

YES

2281

1762

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 4:58 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

3.54%chance

7810009

OptionVotes

YES

2435

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5%chance

918354

OptionVotes

YES

2482

1495

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

32%chance

351535

OptionVotes

YES

995

989

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.52%chance

161265

OptionVotes

YES

1623

616

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

Jan 19, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14695

OptionProbability

At least 4 GOP Senators explicitly come out against Trump on Greenland.

The EU implements relaliatory tariffs.

At least 5 GOP House members explicity come out against Trump on Greenland.

The tariffs against Europe are put into full effect.

Mass economic isolation of the US.

The US gains control of at least part of Greenland through diplomatic means.

NATO dissolves

The US invades Greenland.

US and Europe get into a war.

Trump gets into a war with Canada.

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Means of Control News

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Prediction markets for Means of Control

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Russia collapses before 2030

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Which of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

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