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Prediction markets for Mech

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9031646

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Copenhagen

Other

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Indivisible stochastic processes

Superdeterminism

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

53

26

7

6

5

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.66%chance

9531058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

972

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.69%chance

303184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

924

Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?

Oct 11, 11:21 PMJan 1, 5:04 PM

36.38%chance

381906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

589

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

231248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

985

Will "A List of 45+ Mech Interp Project Ideas from ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.34%chance

2650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1650

922

Will "Mech interp is not pre-paradigmatic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 7:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

3508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

936

What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?

Dec 12, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

8425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?

Aug 14, 2:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

11424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050

Jun 7, 7:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.64%chance

12338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

950

Will "Deep Causal Transcoding: A Framework for Mech..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 23, 3:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.11%chance

3265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

964

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