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Prediction markets for Mech

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9435409

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Copenhagen

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

46

32

7

6

4

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.94%chance

10332775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1104

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

934

Will OpenAI announce a massively recursive model, a new mechinterp system, and non-token based pricing, before December?

Oct 15, 12:48 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.46%chance

204353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

994

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Jul 4, 9:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

313209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

949

Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?

Oct 11, 11:21 PMJan 1, 5:04 PM

27%chance

392235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

825

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

231248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

985

Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?

Aug 14, 2:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.78%chance

14885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1536

651

Will "Mech interp is not pre-paradigmatic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 7:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

3508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

936

What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?

Dec 12, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

8425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050

Jun 7, 7:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.64%chance

12338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

950

Will the Fire Escape mechanical arcade game by Mech-Tronic be remade before 2031?

Jan 4, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

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