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Prediction markets for MED

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

345343621

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Other

Will Sawin

Maria Colombo

Yu Deng

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Vesselin Dimitrov

Yibo Gao

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

23

21

16

9

8

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70116671

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

49

28

12

4

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

15%chance

8662741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.58%chance

10516760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6386

1018

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.27%chance

7512194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14828

6745

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.17%chance

158716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18386

5439

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.42%chance

238056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5412

3201

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will Donald Trump be revealed to have a major medical condition before the end of his second presidential term?

Nov 7, 7:11 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

76.51%chance

313514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1805

554

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

57.16%chance

10847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

140

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.95%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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