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Prediction markets for MED

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87154421

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2028-2029

2025-2026

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

44

35

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

36.54%chance

8865278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

11118952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7997

907

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

3013200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8798

4686

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

4312125

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Tom hutchcroft

Antoine Song

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Jeremy Hahn

Alexander Dunn

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

Ruixiang Zhang

Levent Alpöge

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

David Budden

27

21

12

11

9

6

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?

Feb 27, 10:48 PMJan 21, 12:00 PM

7.53%chance

409617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

285

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

53.47%chance

11857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

148

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.2%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will "Machinic Psychopharmacology: Do LLMs Self-Med..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 7:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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