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Prediction markets for MED

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

313320871

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jack Thorne

Jacob Tsimerman

John Pardon

Yu Deng

Javier Fresan

Sam Raskin

Yibo Gao

Other

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Song Sun

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Frederick Manners

David Budden

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

22

20

12

9

6

6

5

4

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69113858

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

70

19

3

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.13%chance

221550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31548

3170

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

10515922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5988

1052

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.27%chance

7412174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14828

6745

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.33%chance

148589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18471

5414

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.91%chance

197514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5299

3709

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will China win more gold medals than the United States of America at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Jan 21, 8:15 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

12%chance

272609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

57.16%chance

10847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

140

By 2030 will I be able to get a 3 month prescription for stimulant meds to treat ADHD?

Apr 15, 3:45 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.95%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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