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Prediction markets for Media Days

Will Wendy's introduce surge pricing by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 8:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.96%chance

292425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2605

625

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

321677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

876

If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?

Nov 1, 11:55 PMNov 8, 11:59 PM

84.03%chance

211436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

922

By the next UK election, will a sitting MP publicly question US military presence in the UK?

Mar 10, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.54%chance

71169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

524

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will the EU force Ukraine to make concessions?

Oct 5, 10:13 PMMar 2, 2:59 AM

42.26%chance

16451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

798

Will Dmirty Medvedev outlive Vladimir Putin?

Feb 20, 4:36 PMJan 25, 8:59 PM

70.15%chance

19379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

941

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

39.24%chance

13323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

948

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

55.16%chance

7277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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