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Prediction markets for Media Manager

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

696356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.12%chance

122248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2683

947

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.15%chance

251026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

975

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2025?

Mar 9, 5:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13487

OptionProbability

Coding

Chat

General intelligence/agent

Multimodal/task agnostic

Text to Image generation

Other

Text to video

Robotics

Writing assistants

Social media managers

AI research

48

29

6

6

5

4

2

1

0

0

0

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

51

30

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

37.37%chance

14373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

917

Will Monica have a new update before September 2025?

Jun 12, 3:26 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

117

Recommend me a trustworthy social media marketing brand.

Mar 13, 9:46 AM

00

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

240

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