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Prediction markets for Media Manager

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.09%chance

7713190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5918

1919

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.59%chance

736967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

915

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.17%chance

144554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4791

209

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.48%chance

261276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

800

When Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first be shown alive on video?

Apr 23, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2829

OptionProbability

Later or Never

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

29

26

12

12

8

6

6

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10485

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

39

35

17

2

2

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

37.37%chance

14373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

917

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Where will Cesc Fabregas coach next?

Apr 12, 7:29 PMJan 1, 8:27 PM

285

OptionProbability

Chelsea FC

Arsenal FC

Other

FC Barcelona

AC Milan

Inter Milan

Juventus

Manchester City FC

Liverpool FC

Real Madrid

19

16

12

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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