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Prediction markets for Media Manager

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.92%chance

726917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.01%chance

475555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3438

2470

Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025?

Aug 9, 6:45 AMApr 1, 9:59 PM

10.93%chance

264226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2854

350

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.96%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2850

351

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.15%chance

251026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

975

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

51

30

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

37.37%chance

14373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

917

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Álvaro Arbeloa be sacked or resign before the end of the 2025–26 season?

Jan 15, 6:58 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

117

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