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Prediction markets for Media Manager

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.15%chance

8314198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6271

1868

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

779613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

When Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first be shown alive on video?

Apr 23, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

98802

OptionProbability

Later or Never

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

May-Aug 2026

44

15

15

9

7

7

1

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.8%chance

162780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2099

1104

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

12.2%chance

242577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2683

373

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.03%chance

271376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

745

[Metaculus] Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

Oct 7, 12:48 PMFeb 3, 5:00 AM

37.37%chance

14373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

917

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

117

If there is a second election in Israel, will the Arab parties do better or worse?

Oct 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

431

OptionProbability

Government forms without a second election

Second election: Arab parties get fewer than 19 seats

Second election: Arab parties get 19 or more seats

56

36

8

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