Media Week News

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114660

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Apr 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.02%chance

566954

OptionVotes

YES

1800

676

How will Donald Trump die? (Add your own answer!)

May 31, 3:20 AMJun 1, 3:19 AM

435849

OptionProbability

❤️ Heart disease

😨 Stroke

Dementia

Other

🔫 Assassination

He dies in Mar a Lago, but details don't get public.

💊 Cancer

👴 Peacefully in his sleep (old age)

🏊Drowning (non assasination)

✈️Aircraft crash

🚗 Car crash

🦾 Shoggoth/AI

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.28%chance

8636

OptionVotes

YES

1632

613

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1241

805

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?

Jun 1, 12:45 PMJul 29, 11:00 PM

57.37%chance

3160

OptionVotes

YES

1160

862

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

YES

139

will there be regular real-time video broadcasts of SCOTUS sessions before a state broadcasts an execution?

Feb 26, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.3%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

264

176

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

186

100

Will ETHDenver 2027 have higher attendance than ETHDenver 2026?

Feb 20, 9:52 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.67%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

1055

948

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

Media Week News

Prediction markets for Media Week

Prediction markets for Media Week

Prediction markets for Media Week

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

How will Donald Trump die? (Add your own answer!)

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

will there be regular real-time video broadcasts of SCOTUS sessions before a state broadcasts an execution?

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Will ETHDenver 2027 have higher attendance than ETHDenver 2026?

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

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