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Prediction markets for Median

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

70.14%chance

768157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

893

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.35%chance

142301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2794

358

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will the Zillow's Rentals Data indicate a decrease in San Francisco's median rent at the end of 2026?

Feb 1, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.89%chance

151490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

938

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?

Jun 8, 5:53 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

62.29%chance

4280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

649

459

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

When will SOTA for Atari 100k pass human median and mean score on all 57 games?

Apr 9, 8:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5258

OptionProbability

2023-2024

Other

2024-2025

Before 2023

2025-2026

2026-2027

2027-2032

2032-never

37

26

15

13

2

2

2

2

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.68%chance

877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

137

Given the Democratic candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?

Dec 20, 11:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.43%chance

357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

65

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