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Prediction markets for Median

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.67%chance

1610591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18131

5516

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.26%chance

758057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

938

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will the Zillow's Rentals Data indicate a decrease in San Francisco's median rent at the end of 2026?

Feb 1, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.94%chance

141440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

970

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.77%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

746

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

When will the US have median Terabit Internet Speeds 🇺🇸🛜🌐

Mar 2, 1:35 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

10375

OptionProbability

After 2044

2040-2044

2035 -2039

Before 2030

2030 - 2034

62

19

13

3

3

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?

Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.27%chance

6271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

864

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?

Jun 8, 5:53 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

53.77%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

721

359

Will US median household income equal at least half of average home values by 2035?

Nov 18, 1:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.2%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

96

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