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Prediction markets for Median

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.33%chance

148589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18471

5414

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will the Zillow's Rentals Data indicate a decrease in San Francisco's median rent at the end of 2026?

Feb 1, 8:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.94%chance

141440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

970

What will be the median p(doom) of AI researchers after AGI is reached?

Dec 14, 6:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161076

OptionProbability

Above 5%

Above 10%

Above 20%

Above 50%

Above 80%

84

68

25

8

5

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.77%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

746

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will the median home value in san francisco county be more than 2,000,000 USD in Q3 2029?

Jun 8, 5:53 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

53.77%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

721

359

Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?

Dec 20, 11:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.19%chance

884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

99

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.68%chance

877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

137

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