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Medicare News

    Prediction markets for Medicare

    What will Trump give Elon for his nickname?

    Jun 6, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:23 AM
    436197820

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Crazy Elon

    “drug addict elon” or similar

    Spacey Elon

    subsidy elon

    Loser Elon

    Whiny Elon

    The Man Who Lost His Mind

    Entitled elon

    Angry elon

    Incel Elon

    government subsidy guy

    Leon Musk

    Train wreck Elon

    slippery eel / eel elon

    Icky Elon

    musk the moocher

    Mr mars

    muskrat elon / elon muskrat

    Delusional elon

    evil elon

    rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

    felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

    elon husk

    ozempic elon

    elmo

    Phony Stark

    Failed Elon

    Space Cadet

    Exploding Rocket Man

    DOGE Boy

    No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

    Vriska Serket

    Elongated Muskrat

    Melon Husk

    Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

    Mars Man

    ev elon

    Slimy Elon

    Illegal Elon

    Emo Elon

    Little Elon

    Ketamine Elon

    Mediocre Musk

    Fat Elon

    Klon

    Space Boy

    E Elon

    ET Elon

    Elon of the Crimson Blade

    Medicare Elon

    Melon

    Xanax

    Ketamelon

    mental musk

    marsboy musk

    Elon Melon

    Murky Musk

    Ketamine Karen

    resolves no

    jetbrain

    elonious munk

    Lying Elon

    Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

    Musky Elon

    N/A

    Oh no!

    Elon The Con

    Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

    Low IQ Elon

    Erratic Elon

    Buddy

    Friend Elon

    Great Elon

    Fail-on

    Eblon

    Extraterrestrial

    solar

    Kooky elon

    The Best President

    Moron Musk

    squealin elon

    African Elon / afrikaan elon

    autistic Elon

    immigrant elon

    Evil Musk

    Elon musksnake

    That guy

    Eloon

    (This option will not resolve yes)

    Elon the idiot

    Schemin' Elon

    Elon the Pawn

    Off the Rails Elon

    Mr Musk

    Yilong Ma

    Mr Elon

    Mad Musk

    Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

    Special K

    55

    11

    5

    5

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    Fold a paper airplane

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    Kill everyone - Liron

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Faster than light travel

    92

    92

    87

    85

    84

    83

    82

    82

    80

    75

    74

    73

    69

    65

    64

    63

    58

    57

    55

    55

    48

    45

    38

    31

    28

    26

    21

    20

    14

    11

    10

    5

    5

    4

    4

    1

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    91

    89

    88

    82

    79

    79

    71

    71

    65

    63

    63

    58

    53

    50

    48

    47

    45

    44

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    38

    37

    36

    36

    34

    34

    31

    31

    31

    28

    27

    27

    26

    25

    24

    23

    22

    21

    19

    18

    18

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    Will the Trump administration enact Medicare For All

    Dec 5, 5:31 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM
    9.25%chance
    192572

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3133

    319

    Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?

    Nov 24, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    85.42%chance
    271377

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1561

    810

    OptionProbability

    Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

    Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

    Per-state insurance exchanges

    Nutrition labelling requirements

    Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

    No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

    Medicaid expansion

    Bundled payments for Medicare

    Coverage for contraceptive methods

    Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

    Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

    States may require abortion care coverage

    65

    56

    50

    50

    47

    47

    47

    47

    46

    41

    41

    37

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1345

    744

    OptionProbability

    Never

    In 10 years

    In 25 years

    In 50 years

    In 100 years

    40

    25

    23

    6

    6

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    224

    45

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    147

    68

    Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?

    Aug 3, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    79.26%chance
    8136

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    253

    103

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    407

    380

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