Medicare News
Prediction markets for Medicare
OptionProbability
55
11
5
5
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Jul 20, 4:26 AMJul 20, 4:15 AM
27338198
OptionProbability
92
92
87
85
84
83
82
82
80
75
74
73
69
65
64
63
58
57
55
55
48
45
38
31
28
26
21
20
14
11
10
5
5
4
4
1
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
837585
OptionProbability
100
91
89
88
82
79
79
71
71
65
63
63
58
53
50
48
47
45
44
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
38
37
36
36
34
34
31
31
31
28
27
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
18
18
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
3133
319
Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?
Nov 24, 12:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85.42%chance
271377
OptionVotes
1561
810
Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?
Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5852
OptionProbability
65
56
50
50
47
47
47
47
46
41
41
37
Medicare/Medicaid no longer #1 US budget item in 2028? (excluding defense)
Jul 9, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.61%chance
7435
OptionVotes
1345
744
OptionProbability
40
25
23
6
6
Will the 2025 US Budget cut Social Security and Medicare by at least 5%
Nov 13, 9:04 PMDec 21, 6:59 AM
16.58%chance
6155
OptionVotes
224
45
Will the 2028 democratic nominee for president support Medicare for All?
Apr 23, 11:58 AMAug 1, 12:59 AM
68.48%chance
7138
OptionVotes
147
68
Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?
Aug 3, 6:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
79.26%chance
8136
OptionVotes
253
103
What will the marginal US federal income tax rate on $1M taxable income be in 2026?
Jan 8, 6:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.42%chance
7124
OptionProbability
407
380