Medium News

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Dec 5, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1839309

OptionProbability

Medium or higher on Cybersecurity

Medium or higher on Model Autonomy

High or higher on CBRN

High or higher on Persuasion

100

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10514341

OptionProbability

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Asteroid 2024‑YR4 Closest Approach Distance in Dec 2032

Feb 20, 3:54 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

498858

OptionProbability

40,000-400,000 km (Transits Inside Moon's Orbit)

more than 400,000 km (Distant)

8500-39,999 km (Transits Medium Earth Orbit)

7500-8499 km (Transits Low Earth Orbit)

6400-7499 km (Graze)

Unknown

<6400 km (Impact)

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

Oct 31, 4:20 PMDec 23, 9:59 PM

363280

OptionProbability

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Install a puppet government

Permanently cut gaza in half, occupy the North

Other

Get bogged down in a stalemate

When will "Mistral-medium" weights be available?

Dec 11, 12:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17973

OptionProbability

Other

January 2024

[Later than December 2025]

February 2024

December 2023

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Dec 16, 7:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.13%chance

24760

OptionVotes

YES

1036

960

AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.

Apr 29, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.75%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

1187

907

Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced medium-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?

Oct 23, 10:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.96%chance

3176

OptionVotes

YES

1176

850

Will medium duration TIPS yields go below -1% again before 2060?

Dec 17, 2:14 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

29%chance

3108

OptionVotes

YES

112

Engineer a medium-scale controversy involving Manifold without committing a crime

Dec 12, 5:26 PM

Only for men. Would have sex with a woman of medium attractiveness, given no STDs for

Nov 15, 3:17 PM

310

Recommend me a piece of medium-to-long fiction I will enjoy, that I have not read yet

Nov 3, 8:57 PM

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Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Asteroid 2024‑YR4 Closest Approach Distance in Dec 2032

What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

When will "Mistral-medium" weights be available?

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.

Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced medium-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?

Will medium duration TIPS yields go below -1% again before 2060?

Engineer a medium-scale controversy involving Manifold without committing a crime

Only for men. Would have sex with a woman of medium attractiveness, given no STDs for

Recommend me a piece of medium-to-long fiction I will enjoy, that I have not read yet

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