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Top stories

Rubio Says Ukraine Peace Deal Won’t Cede All Occupied Territory to Russia

US Foreign Policy

Rubio Says Ukraine Peace Deal Won’t Cede All Occupied Territory to Russia

Authors

4

6 months ago

Vice President Vance Criticized for Claim All Wars End in Negotiation

Vice President Vance Criticized for Claim All Wars End in Negotiation

Authors

10

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Meet the Press

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41%chance

19028884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.52%chance

5014628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3125

329

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

7011137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2487

801

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34659

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

31

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

69.72%chance

6757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

659

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

30.21%chance

7691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

When will the LCBO put American alcohol back on its shelves?

Dec 24, 12:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3630

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

2027 or later

39

24

10

8

8

8

1

1

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

75.79%chance

9335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2027?

Dec 24, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

4243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?

Dec 11, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.41%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

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