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Prediction markets for Memory

Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?

Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.62%chance

224037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

935

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2025?

Apr 17, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.73%chance

131508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

416

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Apr 17, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.44%chance

12907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

569

Second major LLM-chatbot integrates thread-memory by EoY 2025

Apr 27, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.68%chance

9813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

552

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2073?

Aug 19, 1:09 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

54.25%chance

13569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

911

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

3297

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2040-2045

2035-2040

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

11

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2048?

Aug 19, 1:04 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

43%chance

9185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

189

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2098?

Aug 19, 1:07 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.95%chance

7185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

154

Will cerebrolysin be shown to improve memory, intelligence, or some other trait?

Dec 24, 8:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.39%chance

5124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

30

Which year will the US govt publically require memory safe languages be used for govt applications

Feb 27, 8:09 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

2030

Never

2035

Other

31

29

20

20

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial's hand, arm, shoulder, hairline, and top of horse's head be complete by the end of 2037?

May 15, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

22

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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