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Prediction markets for Messages app

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5312290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19219

7438

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

18.62%chance

392961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will I have a meaningful interaction over BitChat before August 1st 2026?

Aug 4, 6:22 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

42105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

36.12%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

🌐Which social platforms will reach 500M or more users by the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 16, 12:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9619

OptionProbability

Discord

Twitch

VerSe Innovation Josh

Baidu Tieba

Rakuten Viber

PageBites imo

Xiaohongshu

Likee

Picsart

Vevo

VK

Pinterest

Line by Naver

Threads

Bluesky

Microsoft Teams

Tumblr

Manifold

Quora

Microsoft Skype

74

59

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

46

46

46

40

38

26

20

5

1

Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?

Mar 26, 7:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.95%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

873

Will any social media app surpass Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, or TikTok in US monthly active users by EOY 2025

Feb 2, 8:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.7%chance

5225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

32

Will Apple enable users to use gesture and voice input as primary interaction methods by 2028?

Mar 12, 6:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.74%chance

4210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

172

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

May 15, 12:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

4148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

128

Will the EU force messaging apps to scan encrypted messages for CSAM?

May 7, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.44%chance

5136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

Will Apple release support for editing RCS messages before 2026

Dec 23, 4:13 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

39.83%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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