Meta FAIR News

Taylor Swift dies

The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published

Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man

A woman is president of the United States

A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected

Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State

Taylor Swift goes to Space

China full-scale invades Taiwan

Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl

Reputation (TV) is released

Cannabis is Federally Legalized

Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord

Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet

Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl

A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award

King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)

Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams

Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years

Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court

Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried

GameStop files for Bankruptcy

The UN has a new member state

Destiny is unbanned from Twitch

There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty

Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)

The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth

Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child

The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs

Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"

Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL

A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement

The United States reports a Recession

Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams

A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship

Jimmy Carter Dies

The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency

Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums

Taylor Swift gets engaged

Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs

Pope Francis ceases to be Pope

YES

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES