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Meta Llama News

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1711580

OptionProbability

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

93

6

1

1

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Jul 25, 8:51 PMAug 1, 4:00 PM

3210864

OptionProbability

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

7

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

121952

OptionProbability

Anthropic / Claude

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

DeepSeek

Mistral

Meta / Llama

Microsoft

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

100

70

45

32

26

16

11

9

8

When will Meta release Llama 5?

May 20, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171624

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

Before July 2027

Before July 2026

Before January 2026

8

6

6

1

0

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71436

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Grok (xAI)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Kimi (Moonshot)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Test

75

55

30

29

13

12

12

11

9

0

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.51%chance

81237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

678

Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026?

Nov 21, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3690

OptionProbability

Grok (xAI)

GPT (OpenAI)

Claude (Anthropic)

LLaMa (Meta)

Gemini (Google)

44

23

15

13

6

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Meta trains model 2x larger than Behemoth in llama 4 series?

Apr 8, 9:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.94%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

87

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