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Prediction markets for Meta Llama

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1711580

OptionProbability

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

93

6

1

1

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

Jul 25, 8:51 PMAug 1, 4:00 PM

256829

OptionProbability

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

41

38

32

24

20

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

21.37%chance

256500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1918

521

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81790

OptionProbability

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

DeepSeek

Anthropic / Claude

Mistral

Microsoft

Meta / Llama

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

75

45

41

33

26

15

10

9

8

When will Meta release Llama 5?

May 20, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

121074

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before July 2027

Before January 2027

Before July 2026

Before January 2026

64

62

57

19

0

Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

Dec 28, 11:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4830

OptionProbability

Gemini (Google)

Claude (Anthropic)

GPT (OpenAI)

Grok (xAI)

DeepSeek

Llama (Meta)

Mistral (Mistral AI)

Qwen (Alibaba)

Kimi (Moonshot)

Test

70

45

29

29

25

23

23

23

23

0

Which AI model series will reach the highest version number by 12/31/2026?

Nov 21, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3690

OptionProbability

Grok (xAI)

GPT (OpenAI)

Claude (Anthropic)

LLaMa (Meta)

Gemini (Google)

44

23

15

13

6

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.25%chance

6552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

812

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

85.31%chance

10301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Meta trains model 2x larger than Behemoth in llama 4 series?

Apr 8, 9:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.94%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Which AI company will have the highest-ranked Super Bowl LX ad on USA TODAY Ad Meter?

Jan 12, 4:14 AMFeb 9, 9:00 AM

9236

OptionProbability

Anthropic (Claude)

Google (Gemini)

OpenAI (ChatGPT)

Meta (Llama)

Other

Microsoft (Copilot)

xAI (Grok)

Amazon (Rufus, Alexa)

Apple (Siri)

Perplexity AI

62

8

6

5

5

3

3

3

3

3

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