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Prediction markets for Meter Point

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?

Feb 17, 2:06 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15.01%chance

446420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

867

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?

Jan 17, 5:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

45.68%chance

716394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

908

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?

Mar 9, 10:52 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

82.58%chance

312972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2148

463

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?

Jan 17, 11:07 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

64.12%chance

352504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1431

556

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?

Jan 17, 6:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.86%chance

231722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

734

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Mar 8, 6:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

75.75%chance

191645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

641

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?

Mar 10, 12:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54%chance

271439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

887

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2032?

Mar 1, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.48%chance

241217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

625

Will I find proof of a mushroom at least a meter tall?

Oct 21, 2:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

14616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

902

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

52.57%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

982

[Metaculus] Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:34 AMJan 2, 5:00 AM

50%chance

13442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

90

Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026

Feb 16, 8:10 AMAug 1, 7:04 AM

74.67%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

76

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