OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
put his name on a ship in the navy
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Says 6 7 (or variant)
Dep
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Causes Tina Peters' early release
resume buying oil from Russia
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Pardon himself
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Implement a federal abortion ban
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Pardon p diddy
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Postpone the elections due to emergency
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
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80
75
72
71
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64
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60
57
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6
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5
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4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
17398
9289
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
trump dies
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
windows 12 announcement is made
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
putin or zelensky lose power
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
alan greenspan passes away
yoko ono passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
commercial airline hijacked
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
playstation 6 announced
Kier Starmer out
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
manifold raises more money
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Cy Young award winner announced
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
nobel peace prize winner announced
discord IPO happens
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
biden dies
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
fifa world cup - last game ends
llama 5 release date
Taylor swift gets married
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
grok 5 release date
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
Manifest 2026 starts
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
drake releases an album
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
another trump assassination attempt
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
new iphone releases (in the USA)
trump removes a cabinet member
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
manifold launches real money trading
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
98
97
95
94
94
93
90
87
87
87
87
85
83
83
80
78
76
76
72
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
65
65
63
62
61
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
55
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
43
38
37
36
34
34
34
33
31
31
28
27
25
25
25
25
24
24
22
20
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1223
818
OptionProbability
Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones)
Crystalline (e.g. silicon substrate)
Other
Tentacled (e.g. squid, jellyfish)
Buoyant (e.g. whales or gas bags)
Carcinoid (e.g. crabs)
Composite (e.g. hermit crabs, the Borg)
Humanoid (e.g. greys, Mexican fakes)
Winged (e.g. birds, pterodactyls)
25
23
22
8
7
7
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Iran
A US civilian
ISIS
Israel
Mexican Cartels
OpenAI
Cuba
Kuwait
Haiti
Venezuela
China
Russia
99
67
50
50
41
36
25
24
17
15
12
11
OptionProbability
Omar García Harfuch
Samuel García
Marcelo Ebrard
Ricardo Salinas Pliego
Ricardo Anaya
Gerardo Fernández Noroña
Clara Brugada
Lilly Téllez
Alejandro "Alito" Moreno
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
Manolo Jiménez
Jorge Álvarez Máynez
Andrés Manuel López Beltrán
Alessandra Rojo de la Vega
Enrique de la Madrid
Mauricio Kuri
Other
Ildefonso Guajardo
Jorge Romero Herrera
María Eugenia Campos Galván
Damián Zepeda
13
8
7
7
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
997
376
OptionVotes
YES
NO
244
46
OptionProbability
Supervoid (a huge void between us and the primordial CMB)
Statistical fluctuation within standard inflation
Foreground contamination from nearby galaxies
Primordial gravitational wave signatures
Cosmic strings or cosmic texture defects
Quantum entanglement imprint from another universe
Fortuitous match with Spherical Mexican Hat Wavelets
33
33
25
25
23
21
16
OptionVotes
NO
YES
575
457
OptionVotes
YES
NO
98
71
