OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
pass 500 or more executive orders
Stays alive
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
new blockade of a country
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
have a journalist arrested
Pardon himself
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
ten or more protestors killed during term
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Nominate a family member to high office
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Dep
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Raise the retirement age for social security
stops all sanctions on Russia
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
resume buying oil from Russia
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
force a former president to testify before Congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Enact price controls on groceries
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
expand the borders of the usa
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Prosecute someone for flag burning
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Pardon a convicted pedophile
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Get rid of Noaa.
Says 6 7 (or variant)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
take control of a part of greenland
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
ends black history month
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Salute Putin
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Attack a NATO ally.
Pardon p diddy
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Call for the end of the Senate
Implement a federal abortion ban
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
ban trans people from holding federal offices
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
Withdraw from NATO
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
all time high unemployment reached
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
89
88
88
84
84
83
83
81
76
76
76
75
75
74
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
67
66
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63
63
62
62
60
60
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57
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50
50
48
47
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42
42
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42
42
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40
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36
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33
30
29
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28
28
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28
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27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
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16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
116
86
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1023
978
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
trump dies
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
playstation 6 announced
manifold launches real money trading
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
putin or zelensky lose power
windows 12 announcement is made
Saw XI Releases in USA
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
Kier Starmer out
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Cy Young award winner announced
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
yoko ono passes away
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
new iphone releases (in the USA)
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
First Apple Event of the year
Manifest 2026 starts
fifa world cup - last game ends
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
Taylor swift gets married
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
trump removes a cabinet member
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
Last day of the NFL draft
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
First Nintendo direct of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
doomsday clock announcement made
98
90
89
87
87
85
83
83
83
80
76
76
76
76
76
72
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
65
65
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
56
56
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
45
44
44
44
44
43
41
41
41
38
36
35
35
34
34
34
31
30
28
24
24
20
18
14
11
9
7
4
1
OptionProbability
Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones)
Crystalline (e.g. silicon substrate)
Other
Tentacled (e.g. squid, jellyfish)
Buoyant (e.g. whales or gas bags)
Carcinoid (e.g. crabs)
Composite (e.g. hermit crabs, the Borg)
Humanoid (e.g. greys, Mexican fakes)
Winged (e.g. birds, pterodactyls)
25
23
22
8
7
7
4
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
997
376
OptionVotes
YES
NO
244
46
OptionVotes
NO
YES
575
457
OptionProbability
Supervoid (a huge void between us and the primordial CMB)
Statistical fluctuation within standard inflation
Cosmic strings or cosmic texture defects
Foreground contamination from nearby galaxies
Primordial gravitational wave signatures
Quantum entanglement imprint from another universe
Fortuitous match with Spherical Mexican Hat Wavelets
33
33
23
23
23
16
16
OptionVotes
YES
NO
109
92
OptionVotes
YES
NO
98
71
OptionVotes
NO
YES
80
62
