OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Causes Tina Peters' early release
new blockade of a country
pass 500 or more executive orders
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
resume buying oil from Russia
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Stays alive
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
ten or more protestors killed during term
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Dep
have a journalist arrested
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Enact price controls on groceries
Says 6 7 (or variant)
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon himself
Get rid of Noaa.
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
stops all sanctions on Russia
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Attack a NATO ally.
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
Prosecute someone for flag burning
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
take control of a part of greenland
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
ban trans people from holding federal offices
make statements that are negative about labubu
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Salute Putin
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
stop California from hosting the Olympics
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal age of consent
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Implement a federal abortion ban
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of the Senate
all time high unemployment reached
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
87
84
83
76
76
75
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
68
66
65
63
62
62
60
57
56
55
55
52
52
50
49
47
46
45
44
44
44
41
40
38
37
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
It contains at least some text
The site has content before July 1, 2026
The site has content before June 1, 2026
it's about immigration
The site has content before May 1, 2026
It redirects to another domain before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
It's about extraterrestrial life
Documents declassified for the first time are on the site
It's about mexicans
It will have its own Wikipedia page by 5/1
contains debunked media of space alien activity
It has a cookie consent banner/notice while viewed from any New York state VPN before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)
The site has content before April 1, 2026
Mention of Roswell on site
By May 1st, 2026, site contents unequivocally state UAP craft exist, but does not unequivocally state non-human intelligence exists
Contains AI images or video presented in a way that viewers are supposed to think they're real.
Is significantly geo-restricted, for example the content cannot be viewed in Europe or some USA states without using a VPN.
Mention of Area 51 on site
There is a report that the registration is hacked or otherwise not deliberate by the government
implies race supremacy/ethnocentrism is real (genetic/cultural/preordained)
The government, bored of just selling pardons, has moved on to selling ".gov" domain names to 3rd party private organisations and/or individuals, and this is one of those times.
It's going to be used for an April fools joke.
It's an advert for a product a private company is selling, such as a movie.
92
80
79
60
49
48
47
47
46
40
34
33
32
27
27
26
25
24
24
15
8
6
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10078
9989
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump dies
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
windows 12 announcement is made
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
playstation 6 announced
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
putin or zelensky lose power
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
alan greenspan passes away
yoko ono passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
commercial airline hijacked
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
Kier Starmer out
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
manifold raises more money
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Cy Young award winner announced
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
discord IPO happens
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
fifa world cup - last game ends
Taylor swift gets married
Manifest 2026 starts
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
new iphone releases (in the USA)
trump removes a cabinet member
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
manifold launches real money trading
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
98
93
90
87
87
85
83
83
83
82
80
78
76
76
76
76
73
72
71
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
65
65
62
61
61
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
56
56
55
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
43
38
36
36
34
34
34
31
31
28
25
24
24
22
18
15
14
14
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones)
Crystalline (e.g. silicon substrate)
Other
Tentacled (e.g. squid, jellyfish)
Buoyant (e.g. whales or gas bags)
Carcinoid (e.g. crabs)
Composite (e.g. hermit crabs, the Borg)
Humanoid (e.g. greys, Mexican fakes)
Winged (e.g. birds, pterodactyls)
25
23
22
8
7
7
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Iran
A US civilian
ISIS
Israel
Mexican Cartels
OpenAI
Venezuela
Kuwait
Cuba
Haiti
China
Russia
99
67
50
50
41
36
36
28
25
17
12
11
OptionVotes
YES
NO
997
376
OptionVotes
YES
NO
244
46
OptionProbability
Above 0
Above 2
Above 5
Above 10
Above 15
Above 20
76
76
60
34
24
9
OptionProbability
Supervoid (a huge void between us and the primordial CMB)
Statistical fluctuation within standard inflation
Foreground contamination from nearby galaxies
Primordial gravitational wave signatures
Cosmic strings or cosmic texture defects
Quantum entanglement imprint from another universe
Fortuitous match with Spherical Mexican Hat Wavelets
33
33
25
25
23
21
16
OptionVotes
NO
YES
575
457
OptionVotes
YES
NO
98
71
