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Prediction markets for Microsoft Build

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

Cursor discontinued by EOY2025?

May 21, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.03%chance

332800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

21

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

532129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?

Feb 21, 1:31 PMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

16.89%chance

8255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

150

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

7159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Kramer Intelligence released on Microsoft Store by 2026?

Jul 5, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

When will Demis Hassabis no longer have a human Executive Assistant?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

437

OptionProbability

2034-2035

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2035-2036

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

34

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

250

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