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Microsoft Research News
Prediction markets for Microsoft Research
Prediction markets for Microsoft Research
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
Feb 24, 11:59 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
18.25%
chance
50
3304
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1235
918
Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?
Jun 13, 7:39 AM
Jun 13, 8:59 PM
63.2%
chance
13
363
Option
Votes
NO
YES
989
989
Did Microsoft build a Majorana qubit?
Feb 21, 1:31 PM
Feb 21, 11:59 PM
18.44%
chance
9
260
Option
Votes
YES
NO
304
155
AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?
May 7, 5:01 PM
Dec 31, 5:59 PM
74.99%
chance
6
115
Option
Votes
NO
YES
173
58
US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026
Jan 3, 5:25 PM
Mar 31, 11:59 PM
46.54%
chance
2
82
Option
Votes
NO
YES
300
300
Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?
Nov 12, 7:56 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
72.19%
chance
3
81
Option
Votes
NO
YES
161
62
Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?
Jan 20, 10:15 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
45.25%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
91
If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity
Feb 16, 11:53 PM
27
0
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