Mid Stage News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3174386

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

42%chance

18670

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Jan 22, 4:51 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

13%chance

10535

OptionVotes

YES

259

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

14327

OptionVotes

YES

124

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

Mid Stage News

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

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