Mid Stage News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3377099

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

37%chance

241769

OptionVotes

YES

130

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?

Jun 25, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

13891

OptionVotes

YES

331

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Jan 22, 4:51 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

3.15%chance

13890

OptionVotes

YES

554

Will T1 win the Worlds again this year?

Jun 3, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.44%chance

7362

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.82%chance

15352

OptionVotes

YES

145

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Will T1 win the Worlds again this year?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

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