Mid Stage News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2970192

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Jan 22, 4:51 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

80%chance

5189

OptionVotes

YES

200

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Mar 16, 1:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.57%chance

9150

OptionVotes

YES

121

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

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