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Prediction markets for Middle East conflict

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.79%chance

4711810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2309

433

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1910

754

Donald Trump utilisera-t-il la bombe nucléaire contre l' Iran pour gagner la guerre ?

Apr 1, 11:36 AMApr 1, 11:35 AM

5.53%chance

61098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

24

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

Nov 3, 7:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.64%chance

171041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

791

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

Nov 14, 8:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

89.29%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1633

870

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

האם האירועים הבאים יקרו כמתוכנן?

Mar 19, 1:43 PMDec 31, 1:37 PM

8488

OptionProbability

סמינר מדליסטים 1 ב10-14.5

סמינר מדליסטים 2 ב21-25.6

שבוע עבודה ב24-26.3 ו 29-30.3

אינבו ב15-17.4

100

64

50

0

Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?

Apr 7, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.21%chance

14449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries

Mar 4, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.41%chance

5125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?

May 9, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.55%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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