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Prediction markets for Middle East conflict

Will Iran kill atleast 5 more American soldiers by end March

Mar 7, 10:49 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

19319288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24.21%chance

377742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1769

565

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War

Mar 23, 2:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

18.78%chance

332386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

481

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

Nov 14, 8:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

89.71%chance

221034

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1693

863

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

Nov 3, 7:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.58%chance

171031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

871

Will the US attack Iran's energy sites before the end of the 5-day pause?

Mar 23, 11:37 AMMar 28, 11:36 AM

10%chance

14707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

האם האירועים הבאים יקרו כמתוכנן?

Mar 19, 1:43 PMDec 31, 1:37 PM

8459

OptionProbability

סמינר מדליסטים 2 ב21-25.6

שבוע עבודה ב24-26.3 ו 29-30.3

סמינר מדליסטים 1 ב10-14.5

אינבו ב15-17.4

86

50

50

40

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will European Central Bank cut interest rates before June 2026?

Mar 22, 8:08 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

Will US troops be deployed in combat operations in an overseas conflict before end of 2030

Dec 4, 3:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.38%chance

27

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

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