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Prediction markets for Middle East conflict

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.21%chance

7016559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1573

636

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

121555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

61

Donald Trump utilisera-t-il la bombe nucléaire contre l' Iran pour gagner la guerre ?

Apr 1, 11:36 AMApr 1, 11:35 AM

3.66%chance

61198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

513

19

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

Nov 3, 7:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.64%chance

171041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

791

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

Nov 14, 8:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

89.29%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1633

870

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?

Apr 7, 3:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

14549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Escalation of conflict in the Middle East before October?

Sep 20, 2:10 AMOct 1, 3:00 AM

24.24%chance

9202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

57

Will a third warld war erupt before 2050

Sep 14, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.81%chance

776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

96

Will the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?

May 9, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.55%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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