Middle East conflict News

What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Jan 13, 4:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

616706

OptionProbability

Significant protests are reported in February and March

The US launches airstrikes

Iran strikes Israel with missiles

Iran strikes US bases

The US launches airstrikes on three different days

Israel and Iran go to war again

The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)

Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American

Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power

The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed

US ground troops enter Iran

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

Nov 14, 8:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

90.16%chance

221026

OptionVotes

YES

1764

855

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

Nov 3, 7:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.2%chance

14978

OptionVotes

YES

1477

937

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

1044

907

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.65%chance

6293

OptionVotes

YES

180

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

75.67%chance

6146

OptionVotes

YES

176

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

25.6%chance

283

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will US troops be deployed in combat operations in an overseas conflict before end of 2030

Dec 4, 3:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.38%chance

OptionVotes

YES

107

Middle East conflict News

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Prediction markets for Middle East conflict

What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Will Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Will US troops be deployed in combat operations in an overseas conflict before end of 2030

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