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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Netanyahu Criticized Over Gaza Civilian Casualties Amid Israel’s Divided IDF, Protests, and Push for U.S. Role in Potential December Iran War

Authors

4

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Middle East war

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

8334605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.67%chance

367640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2159

463

Will the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sustain battle damage caused directly by Iranian military forces before 31 march

Feb 28, 8:03 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

13.36%chance

524918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

39

By 2050, will a country have waged a war of conquest because its territory is becoming uninhabitable?

Aug 14, 12:32 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.12%chance

11706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

818

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will China go to war with Taiwan before Israel goes to war with a nation in the middle east

Mar 30, 12:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.91%chance

8656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

180

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

80.5%chance

10228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

35%chance

5140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will European Central Bank cut interest rates before June 2026?

Mar 22, 8:08 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

32.04%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will the print NYT have a top-right A1 story headline that does not mention war in the Middle East in March?

Mar 6, 8:43 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

48.36%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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