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Prediction markets for Midnight

Will the Doomsday Clock be 60s (or less) to midnight by end of January 2026

Feb 22, 1:51 AMJan 24, 4:59 AM

53.01%chance

364542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1272

355

In the next 5 years, will the Doomsday Clock reach 4 or more minutes to midnight?

Jan 25, 7:34 AMJan 25, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

910

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.49%chance

6618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

526

19

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?

Feb 2, 5:46 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

29%chance

13474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

921

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?

Feb 4, 3:05 AMFeb 1, 4:03 AM

22%chance

7378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

65

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 30 seconds to midnight by 2029?

Feb 16, 10:04 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

42%chance

8336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

91

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

6152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

105

AI Safety Clock at 16 minutes to midnight by October 2025?

Mar 28, 12:18 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

35.09%chance

8114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will the AI Safety Clock reach 18 minutes to midnight by August 2025?

Feb 19, 3:52 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

24.19%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

56

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 seconds to midnight by 2030?

Mar 9, 10:33 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

52.16%chance

392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

124

Will the AI Safety Clock reach 17 minutes to midnight by September 2025?

Feb 19, 4:44 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

30.48%chance

353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027.

Feb 21, 8:13 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

220

OptionProbability

81-87 seconds

Other

71-80 seconds

61-70 seconds

51-60 seconds

41-50 seconds

31-40 seconds

21-30 seconds

11-20 seconds

1-10 seconds

Midnight

22

16

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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