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Prediction markets for Midnight

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?

Feb 2, 5:46 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

13.75%chance

171538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

672

In the next 5 years, will the Doomsday Clock reach 4 or more minutes to midnight?

Jan 25, 7:34 AMJan 25, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

17922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

912

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

67

What Big Moves will European Union make before midnight Christmas Eve 2034 (add)

Oct 7, 10:37 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

10626

OptionProbability

Add country(ies)

Relax unanimity requirements

Create Armed forces

Create Reserve like(ish) the US Federal Reserve

Remove a countries voting rights (even for a period)

Expel a country(ies)

Become a country

63

59

55

50

40

30

8

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

Mar 9, 11:53 AMMar 9, 12:50 PM

7.13%chance

12546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

361

28

When will doomsday clock go back (time to midnight increased)?

Feb 26, 1:42 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

14472

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

48

44

36

27

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.25%chance

8228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

114

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Nov 29, 6:22 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will US refuse gold repatriation before Christmas Eve midnight 2028?

Oct 22, 7:20 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

33.17%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Doomsday Clock be between 76-83 seconds to Midnight in 2027?

Feb 26, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

267

OptionProbability

Yes

No (above 83 secs)

No (below 76 secs)

53

40

7

Process formally started to overhaul the Rescue Agreement [for astronauts] before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Nov 6, 8:44 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Aug 19, 5:30 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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