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Prediction markets for Midnight

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?

Feb 2, 5:46 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

9.57%chance

223338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2780

586

In the next 5 years, will the Doomsday Clock reach 4 or more minutes to midnight?

Jan 25, 7:34 AMJan 25, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

17922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

912

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

67

When will doomsday clock go back (time to midnight increased)?

Feb 26, 1:42 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

14472

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

48

44

36

27

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?

Feb 4, 3:05 AMFeb 1, 4:03 AM

23.87%chance

8381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

68

United Kingdom (or successor) has written codified constitution by Christmas Eve midnight 2034?

Sep 16, 7:31 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

9.6%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

33

Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?

Jul 21, 2:46 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.25%chance

8228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

114

What time at midnight will the Doomsday clock will be in 2027.

Feb 21, 8:13 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8196

OptionProbability

71-80 seconds

81-87 seconds

Other

61-70 seconds

51-60 seconds

41-50 seconds

31-40 seconds

21-30 seconds

11-20 seconds

1-10 seconds

Midnight

47

29

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

Hague Invasion Act invoked before Midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Oct 26, 10:34 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

16%chance

4161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will Doomsday Clock be between 76-83 seconds to Midnight in 2027?

Feb 26, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

477

OptionProbability

Yes

No (above 83 secs)

No (below 76 secs)

53

40

7

Trump challenges War Powers Resolution before midnight Christmas Eve 2028?

Aug 19, 5:30 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

51.94%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

How much time before midnight on Doomsday Clock in 2027?

Jul 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

327

OptionProbability

60-80 seconds

81-84 seconds

40-60 seconds

20-40 seconds

1-20 seconds

Midnight

32

14

14

14

14

12

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