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Prediction markets for Miles

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

10649724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6530

4748

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3531186

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

88

83

78

74

72

65

45

28

26

25

23

14

6

1

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.52%chance

7010825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2339

498

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

73.84%chance

145378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

596

Miles Routledge aka Lord Miles is alive in 2030

Jan 13, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.88%chance

204017

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

895

Will the Boring Company create 100,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.72%chance

503314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

884

Waymo reports 1 billion miles driven by end of 2030?

Sep 26, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.49%chance

81634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2249

445

Will the Boring Company create 10,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.7%chance

141095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?

Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.44%chance

9578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1317

759

By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100

Jan 7, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.78%chance

15570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

916

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will the Boring Company create 1,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.52%chance

21472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

985

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