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Miles News

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.28%chance

13995007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6034

3354

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4340370

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Miles will win the bet

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

92

91

88

84

81

80

65

42

35

30

29

22

3

1

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15.51%chance

7111048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2516

463

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

84.22%chance

185822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2312

433

Miles Routledge aka Lord Miles is alive in 2030

Jan 13, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.7%chance

204517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

748

Will the Boring Company create 100,000 miles of tunnels before 2050?

May 6, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.72%chance

503314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

884

Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?

Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

211307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

867

Will the Boring Company create 10,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.7%chance

141095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant restart before 2029?

Sep 20, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

72.49%chance

12884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1623

616

Will the Boring Company create 1,000 miles of tunnels?

May 6, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.89%chance

23877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

806

By 2040, will it be possible to take an electric VTOL aircraft on a trip of at least 75 miles for less than $100

Jan 7, 6:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.78%chance

15570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

916

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

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