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Prediction markets for Minecraft

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?

Sep 27, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.9%chance

7391637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2599

385

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.3%chance

18161766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1577

635

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.5%chance

9317056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

Aug 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89%chance

6114830

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2844

352

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.6%chance

11110306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

743

Humanoid robot completes Minecraft before 2030?

Nov 13, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.83%chance

425172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

837

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

Dec 6, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.26%chance

183469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

504

Will any video game surpass Minecraft as the best-selling video game of all time by 2028?

Apr 24, 7:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.49%chance

392645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

837

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2027?

Dec 17, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

51652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2616

382

Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

71571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

793

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

72.29%chance

161458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

816

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

6622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

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