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Top stories

US Domestic Policy

Parkland Activist Hogg Calls Trump ‘Coward’ After Minneapolis Church Shooting

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Minneapolis shooting

What will happen as a result of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis in the next 30 days?

Jan 7, 7:29 PMFeb 6, 7:27 PM

47368001

OptionProbability

ICE kills another civilian

The ICE agent is put on leave

Jonathan Ross is charged by Minnesota authorities

Walz and/or Frey are indicted by the DOJ

A third civilian is killed by DHS

George Floyd-level protests

Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota

A DHS agent is killed

Trump deploys active-duty military to Minnesota

Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis

Jonathan Ross is fired

100

100

11

10

9

6

6

6

6

5

3

Will any one of the ICE members involved in the shooting of Alex Pretti face any consequences at all?

Jan 24, 6:29 PMFeb 23, 6:17 PM

22.85%chance

35754171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

544

ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026

Jan 28, 10:13 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

19.72%chance

13011174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1898

534

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Jan 8, 6:11 PMDec 31, 4:44 PM

66.7%chance

7210718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

156

Will the US government try to go after the family of the recent ICE shooting victim?

Jan 24, 7:12 PMFeb 23, 7:02 PM

12.06%chance

204562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2701

370

What will happen as a result of the Jan 24 ICE shooting in Minneapolis in the next 30 days?

Jan 24, 4:06 PMFeb 23, 4:06 PM

392863

OptionProbability

The DHS agent is put on leave

DHS kills another civilian

Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota

The DHS agent is charged by Minnesota authorities

A DHS agent is killed

Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis

Trump deploys active-duty military to Minnesota

George Floyd-level protests

The DHS agent is fired

Walz and/or Frey are indicted by the DOJ

100

48

44

34

25

23

23

21

13

8

Will a government agent kill another American citizen before February 28, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:45 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

50%chance

362518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

When will the current Minneapolis/ICE news cycle end?

Jan 9, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:18 PM

132103

OptionProbability

By December 31

By September 30

By June 30

By March 31

By February 28

By January 31

By January 10

By January 17

By January 24

79

72

70

66

18

2

0

0

0

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

20.46%chance

16277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

168

Latest stories

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Legislation
US Domestic Policy
Crime
Parkland Activist Hogg Calls Trump ‘Coward’ After Minneapolis Church Shooting
Authors
4
5 months ago

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