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Prediction markets for Minutes

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

14950736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

702

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?

Sep 27, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.35%chance

5018355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2547

393

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

Aug 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.65%chance

4610000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

967

Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?

Jun 5, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.13%chance

467618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will the fight between Zuck and Musk last at least 69 minutes from start to the end?

Aug 9, 4:12 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

9.21%chance

361908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1693

852

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

Dec 6, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

101559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

In the next 5 years, will the Doomsday Clock reach 4 or more minutes to midnight?

Jan 25, 7:34 AMJan 25, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

17922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

912

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

19648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

982

Will Chechnya's ban on music that is not 80 to 116 beats per minute (BPM) be revoked within 5 years?

Apr 9, 4:00 PMApr 17, 3:59 AM

78.33%chance

17553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

913

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce at least $500,000 in revenue?

Sep 21, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.73%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

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