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Prediction markets for Mir

Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?

Jul 12, 5:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

93355944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7202

931

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.38%chance

256938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4196

238

@Mira Stock

Apr 10, 1:15 PMApr 11, 4:59 AM

316874

OptionProbability

NO

YES

631

515

By 2028, will I think MIRI has been net-good for the world?

Nov 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

79.71%chance

234040

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

729

Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again)

May 27, 8:46 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

7.51%chance

203223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Mirror life created by EOY2030?

Jun 28, 11:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

222348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2636

379

If MIRI runs an end-of-year fundraiser in 2026, how much money will it raise?

Dec 16, 11:22 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

111328

OptionProbability

Above $0

Above $250,000

Above $500,000

Above $750,000

Above $1,000,000

Above $2,000,000

Above $3,000,000

Above $4,000,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $6,000,000

Above $10,000,000

99

98

97

97

95

80

54

40

29

16

15

If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?

Sep 30, 10:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.43%chance

111053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

795

Will "MIRI’s 2025 Fundraiser" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 2, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.5%chance

4820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1820

907

Will the Southern Elephant Seal (Mirounga leonina) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 29, 5:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.71%chance

6637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

796

408

Will Elon "pull a Mira" and flip the script, try to go to -1T after he reaches personal wealth of +1T?

Dec 24, 8:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5.33%chance

8455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

107

Will Lin-Manuel Miranda complete an EGOT in his lifetime?

Oct 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.42%chance

14332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

823

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