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Prediction markets for Mira

Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?

Jul 12, 5:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.85%chance

93355930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8379

919

Will any of @Mira 's pets appear on the Dwarkesh Podcast by end of 2025?

Sep 18, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.54%chance

3160692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68685

2493

@Mira Stock

Apr 10, 1:15 PMApr 11, 4:59 AM

316874

OptionProbability

NO

YES

631

515

Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again)

May 27, 8:46 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

8.6%chance

182913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3259

307

Mira stocks

Apr 11, 7:19 PM

111445

OptionProbability

NO

YES

268

59

Will @Mira and @Catnee go on a date by 2026-01-01 (given no doom until then)?

Jun 6, 1:49 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

6.84%chance

111329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

854

Will Elon "pull a Mira" and flip the script, try to go to -1T after he reaches personal wealth of +1T?

Dec 24, 8:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5.33%chance

8455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

383

107

Will @Mira do anything publicly impressive with AI agents by EOY 2026?

Feb 12, 10:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.06%chance

12213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

66

How soon after question creation will @Mira be banned from Eliezerfic?

Jun 28, 4:54 AMJul 5, 6:59 AM

2171

OptionProbability

Over 4 years/never/she leaves before that

3 months

6 months

1 month

1 year

2 years

3 years

87

3

3

2

2

2

2

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

69.58%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

Exit valuation of Mira (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

371

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$1B+

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

61

18

11

11

What will be true of @Mira 's AI project by 2026 [ADD ANSWERS]

Oct 11, 2:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

440

OptionProbability

Mira will return to Manifold

Mira will bet on this market

Mira will succeed according to Mira

Mira will achieve AGI according to Mira

50

50

49

43

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