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Prediction markets for Mirrorize AI

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

May 25, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2311745

Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?

Sep 10, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.42%chance

413634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

213

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10868

9165

How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?

Feb 17, 5:29 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM

83.87%chance

201604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1255

897

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?

Mar 4, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.4%chance

161039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

537

[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Apr 9, 2:49 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

91.79%chance

9933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

602

130

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Nov 7, 12:06 AMFeb 2, 8:31 PM

65%chance

13314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

273

121

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

31.84%chance

11309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

106

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

31.91%chance

5263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

146

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

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