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Prediction markets for Mirrorize AI

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

9.49%chance

4323226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30784

3099

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

May 25, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2311745

OptionProbability

2028.56-2030.08

2031.6-2033.12

2025.52-2027.04

2027.04-2028.56

2030.08-2031.6

2033.12-2034.64

2024-2025.52

2034.64-2036.16

2036.16-2037.68

2037.68-2039.2

2039.2-2040.72

2040.72-2042.24

2042.24-2043.76

2043.76-2045.28

2045.28-2046.8

2046.8-2048.32

2048.32-2049.84

2049.84-2051.36

2051.36-2052.88

2052.88-2054.4

2054.4-2055.92

2055.92-2057.44

2057.44-2058.96

2058.96-2060.48

2060.48-2062

2062-2063.52

2063.52-2065.04

2065.04-2066.56

2066.56-2068.08

2068.08-2069.6

2069.6-2071.12

2071.12-2072.64

2072.64-2074.16

2074.16-2075.68

2075.68-2077.2

2077.2-2078.72

2078.72-2080.24

2080.24-2081.76

2081.76-2083.28

2083.28-2084.8

2084.8-2086.32

2086.32-2087.84

2087.84-2089.36

2089.36-2090.88

2090.88-2092.4

2092.4-2093.92

2093.92-2095.44

2095.44-2096.96

2096.96-2098.48

2098.48-2100

11

11

10

10

10

9

8

6

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Apr 9, 2:49 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

96.42%chance

111453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

101

[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?

Nov 7, 12:06 AMFeb 2, 8:31 PM

42%chance

16811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

178

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

108

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

32.63%chance

6265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

148

AI company markets 'personality preservation' for model deprecations by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.05%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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