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Prediction markets for Missing Persons

Who of Donald Trump's cabinet will be removed first?

Feb 17, 8:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12616179

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Tulsi Gabbard

Pam Bondi

Kristi Noem

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Howard Lutnick

No One

Scott Bessent

Marco Rubio

Doug Burgum

Brooke Rollins

Sean Duffy

Scott Turner

Chris Wright

Doug Collins

Susie Wiles

Lee Zeldin

Russell Vought

John Ratcliffe

Kelly Loeffler

Linda McMahon

Jamieson Greer

Other

31

15

14

9

4

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

4.92%chance

3110485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3583

686

Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 4:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.28%chance

178721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?

Jul 20, 8:54 PMDec 31, 9:54 PM

18.62%chance

246864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

860

Will the missing Queensland Virus Samples end up being a problem for me personally?

Dec 12, 8:08 AMDec 21, 6:59 AM

3.66%chance

114956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5134

195

Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)?

Apr 30, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.74%chance

143804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2356

424

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

302129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

817

Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?

Jan 13, 8:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.03%chance

111500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

When will there be an AGI for most tasks I care about?

Feb 12, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

241204

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

<2028

<2027

<2026

<2025

88

76

62

58

48

32

5

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will SCOTUS strike down California's Ebony Alert law by 2030?

Feb 17, 10:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.3%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

38

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