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Prediction markets for MMLU

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?

Feb 8, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.04%chance

121501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

861

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?

Dec 20, 8:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

15.31%chance

9599

OptionProbability

YES

NO

873

225

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Dec 20, 8:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.1%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

178

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

Feb 8, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.39%chance

5129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

125

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Aug 19, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.91%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?

Jun 28, 7:24 PMJun 28, 7:00 PM

28.09%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

67

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