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Prediction markets for Mode

Will ChatGPT launch an "adult mode" before 1 April 2026?

Feb 26, 10:35 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

2.59%chance

10221875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6129

163

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

2.37%chance

154593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3705

88

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

144026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

By which year will Gaussian Splats be considered the dominant 3D game rendering mode?

Dec 12, 6:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

152807

OptionProbability

Never.

2029

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

75

25

23

20

8

1

1

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

252506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

769

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

824

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will GPT-X have Galton mode?

Jan 11, 12:45 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

11.41%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

103

Will GPT-X have Joule mode?

Jan 9, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.14%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

86

Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 9:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.66%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

996

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Jan 11, 12:32 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

60

Will Dave Gahan be the last standing member of Depeche Mode?

Nov 24, 9:56 AMDec 1, 12:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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