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Prediction markets for Mode

Will earbud "transparent mode" be able to selectively mute/passthru certain sounds by 2025

Dec 22, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.9%chance

445309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

929

818

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.99%chance

133976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.75%chance

201455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

823

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.29%chance

231000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

952

Will commercial space travel become a common mode of transportation for the general public by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.11%chance

8673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

560

129

Will GPT-X have Fermi mode?

Jan 9, 4:16 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

9.8%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

107

Will GPT-X have Galton mode?

Jan 11, 12:45 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

11.41%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

103

How many days until Manifold iOS app supports Dark Mode?

Aug 1, 4:02 PMApr 28, 1:59 PM

98.41%chance

5190

OptionProbability

NO

YES

420

0

Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

1166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

Will GPT-X have Joule mode?

Jan 9, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.14%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

86

Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 9:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Jan 11, 12:32 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

60

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