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Prediction markets for Mode

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

164595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3624

90

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.49%chance

144026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28%chance

252539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

680

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

211456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

824

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

8823

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

33

27

13

8

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Jan 1, 4:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.98%chance

3677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

who will hit lt3 in a mode first kzqw or yizuui (minecraft)

Apr 1, 5:36 PMDec 31, 6:34 PM

6663

OptionProbability

yizuui

kzqw

86

14

Will GPT-X have Joule mode?

Jan 9, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.14%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

86

Will "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 3, 9:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.02%chance

4125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

988

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Jan 11, 12:32 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

16.94%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

60

Will "You Are Not Immune To Mode Collapse" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 4, 1:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.43%chance

347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

754

ChatGPT's voice mode allows custom MCPs before July 2026?

Dec 7, 9:28 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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