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Prediction markets for Mode

Will earbud "transparent mode" be able to selectively mute/passthru certain sounds by 2025

Dec 22, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91.15%chance

404159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

750

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.99%chance

133976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

By which year will Gaussian Splats be considered the dominant 3D game rendering mode?

Dec 12, 6:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

142421

OptionProbability

Never.

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

75

26

23

21

13

2

1

Profile Name beats Baldur's Gate 3 honor mode solo?

Apr 21, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

21890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032?

Feb 7, 6:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.75%chance

201455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

823

I will resolve this market NO at the end of August unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES (Impossible Mode)

Jul 31, 4:23 PMSep 1, 4:00 AM

18.09%chance

31378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2128

470

Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?

Jan 10, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.04%chance

21949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

961

Will GPT-X have Galton mode?

Jan 11, 12:45 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

11.41%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

103

Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 8, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

1166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

Will GPT-X have Joule mode?

Jan 9, 9:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.14%chance

5161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

86

lilypad moded server up by august 15?

Jul 23, 3:15 AMAug 15, 3:15 AM

49.05%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will Gmail introduce a streaming mode like what's used by discord by EOY 2025

Dec 29, 1:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

92

88

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