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Prediction markets for Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56%chance

18371288880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4896

3843

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.62%chance

792419119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25144

17456

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2%chance

171138197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

76985

2163

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.33%chance

2529465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23497

4256

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.53%chance

3616196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10009

9931

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9919

9893

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14496

6492

In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?

Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.48%chance

193143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

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