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Prediction markets for Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.07%chance

22232043225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4437

4246

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69114

9469

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

8578624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23416

4271

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.12%chance

8915182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.4%chance

4011196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1471

680

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will there be a second Jev-style decision output model on OpenRouter by end October?

Sep 18, 8:58 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

34.47%chance

8207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Which of these models will Opus 5.5 beat on arena.ai in Agent Arena in a week?

Sep 23, 12:38 PMSep 30, 12:37 PM

00

OptionProbability

GPT-6 Astra

Claude 5.1 Fable

55

45

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