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Prediction markets for Model

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21101878813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4797

3929

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.09%chance

827508712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57325

10606

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

62.61%chance

218122072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10909

7973

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.04%chance

7975784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24743

4041

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54089

1849

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.28%chance

6226753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12280

8032

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

582

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.54%chance

8514858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.99%chance

6814585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8681

3642

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.21%chance

3310730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

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