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Model News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46%chance

20781816706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4701

4009

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.95%chance

812504817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57878

10544

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

7273379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24503

4081

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.77%chance

15037943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10179

9344

Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?

Jan 30, 5:29 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

47.91%chance

10128857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11745

8426

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7712738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.27%chance

3010604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1538

650

[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.32%chance

6210116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5344

4741

Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)

Apr 8, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

252543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

609

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