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Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.14%chance

192314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1948

513

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Oct 31, 11:55 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

22.79%chance

101691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

543

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4 [metaculus]

Jul 30, 4:08 PMJul 1, 4:04 PM

5885

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

63

59

55

52

50

48

35

20

12

6

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.78%chance

10860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

665

Will the NHL Philadelphia Flyers make the playoffs in the 25-26 Season

Jan 18, 11:58 PMApr 15, 11:59 PM

41.66%chance

6682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

845

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:52 PMJul 1, 3:50 PM

4570

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

80

72

66

60

55

55

45

37

24

11

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:55 PMJul 1, 3:55 PM

2430

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

55

50

45

41

31

20

14

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Trump launches Berlusconi Visa program?

Mar 22, 7:29 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

22.96%chance

4127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

How much VRAM will the RTX 6060 have?

Jun 8, 9:30 AMDec 31, 10:09 AM

5102

OptionProbability

8GB

10GB

12GB

14GB

16GB

Above 16GB

Below 8GB

23

22

22

10

10

7

5

Is this "savage" takedown of Jose Luis Ricon actually savage?

Dec 11, 8:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10

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