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Prediction markets for Model Merging

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Mar 31, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

85%chance

555798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1426

854

Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

195263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

641

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:12 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

132690

OptionProbability

April 1 2027, Later, or never

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

2023

Q1 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q2 2024

66

27

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?

Oct 1, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.95%chance

72112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

What Year will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:35 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

71622

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

Later or never

2029

2025

2024

2023

36

32

19

5

4

2

1

0

Will openAI cancel o5 model?

Aug 4, 1:48 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

98.22%chance

121532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

744

13

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will GPT-5 have over 10 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:36 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.25%chance

21581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

81

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7107

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

Anthropic

OpenAI

StepFun

25

9

9

8

7

7

7

7

7

5

5

5

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

When will Suno IPO or get acquired ?

Oct 16, 8:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

213

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

66

50

50

50

50

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