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Prediction markets for Model Spec

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

67.19%chance

384159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

520

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

Aug 29, 4:50 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

10.8%chance

181800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

684

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will a future version of the Apple Vision Pro have a 6-hour battery life before 2027?

Feb 2, 8:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.43%chance

12237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

155

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.49%chance

7127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

130

What will the MSRP of the Flipper One?

May 28, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4115

OptionProbability

$300 – $399

$400 – $499

$200 – $299

$500 – $599

$600 – $699

$700 – $799

Below $199

Above $800

40

20

7

7

7

7

6

6

Will the 6 reindeer/caribou species model be accepted by the IUCN next time they are reassessed

Dec 10, 3:57 AMMar 17, 3:59 AM

58.12%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

79

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