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Model Spec News
Prediction markets for Model Spec
Prediction markets for Model Spec
By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
Apr 22, 9:43 PM
Dec 28, 7:59 AM
19.93%
chance
26
2186
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1815
658
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?
Aug 7, 7:30 PM
Aug 31, 11:59 PM
46.42%
chance
11
1122
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1074
931
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
78%
chance
16
943
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1382
859
Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:37 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
91.85%
chance
16
610
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1169
959
Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?
May 9, 4:25 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
11.65%
chance
7
297
Option
Votes
YES
NO
278
37
Will a future version of the Apple Vision Pro have a 6-hour battery life before 2027?
Feb 2, 8:38 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
46.57%
chance
8
171
Option
Votes
NO
YES
194
178
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
Feb 9, 3:03 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
62%
chance
6
125
Option
Votes
NO
YES
172
131
Will the 6 reindeer/caribou species model be accepted by the IUCN next time they are reassessed
Dec 10, 3:57 AM
Mar 17, 3:59 AM
58.12%
chance
2
13
Option
Votes
NO
YES
103
79
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