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Prediction markets for Model Spec

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

19.93%chance

262186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1815

658

By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 8:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.86%chance

262063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

754

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

48.8%chance

101072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

976

Is the OpenAI model spec the upcoming definition for next major API release?

May 14, 8:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

2671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

15558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.73%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

41

Will a future version of the Apple Vision Pro have a 6-hour battery life before 2027?

Feb 2, 8:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.57%chance

8171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

178

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

6125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

131

Will the 6 reindeer/caribou species model be accepted by the IUCN next time they are reassessed

Dec 10, 3:57 AMMar 17, 3:59 AM

58.12%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

79

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