Models API News

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

224238201

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-08

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-02-04

Before 2026-02-05

Before 2026-02-06

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

YES

139076

72591

Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?

Jan 30, 5:29 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

83.69%chance

4813370

OptionVotes

YES

2265

441

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

17.13%chance

617183

OptionVotes

YES

1630

805

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

YES

1388

721

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

May 22, 3:54 PMMar 31, 3:49 PM

342961

OptionProbability

Will have a battery

Requires a network connection

Has a microphone

Has a camera

US retail price <= $500 on launch

Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)

Will have a vibration motor for notifications

Can play music from Spotify

Has notification LEDs

Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

Has any screen

Will come in >= 3 colors on launch

Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release

Is wearable

Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription

US retail price <= $300 on launch

Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)

Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026

On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Feb 2, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61344

OptionProbability

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

YES

1403

867

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

YES

1940

516

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.8%chance

23513

OptionVotes

YES

1290

868

GPT-5 level model runnable on phones by 2030?

Oct 12, 8:31 PMJan 1, 9:29 PM

41%chance

7148

OptionVotes

YES

120

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

477

OptionVotes

YES

128

Models API News

Prediction markets for Models API

Prediction markets for Models API

Prediction markets for Models API

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

GPT-5 level model runnable on phones by 2030?

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

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