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Prediction markets for Modern Family

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

Is the Silurian hypothesis true?

Nov 11, 7:39 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

2.89%chance

6604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

462

105

Will there be a significant drop in number of births in Japan during the year of the fire horse?

Dec 30, 4:19 AMFeb 4, 11:59 PM

35.31%chance

9143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

When will 1%+ of processors produced in a year have a word size of 128 bits or more?

Aug 15, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4122

OptionProbability

Before 2226

Before 2176

Before 2126

Before 2076

76

72

66

59

Will the show “Modern Family” have a reboot or spin-off before 2030?

Apr 20, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

16.1%chance

6111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

39

Is Qiaochu Yuan a descendant of the Yuan Clan of Runan?

Jun 17, 6:11 PM

00

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