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MoE News

🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

6013365

OptionProbability

Other

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

MSF / Doctors without Borders

Pope Leo XIV

Yulia Navalnaya

International Court of Justice

Narges Mohammadi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Netanyahu

Greta Thunberg

Narendra Modi

Nathan Law

duplicate - international Court of Justice

UNESCO

Philippe Lazzarini

Joe Biden

UNRWA

Alexei Navalny

Kyaw Moe Tun

José Andrés

World Uyghur Congress

Maria Corina Machado

Eliezer Yudkowsky

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

Timnit Gebru

Elon Musk

NATO

Donald Trump

JD Vance

AOC

Antonio Guterres

Julian Assange

David Attenborough

Pope Francis

Ursula von der Leyen

Keir Starmer

European Union

Ilham Tohti

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Jacinda Ardern

Raoni Metuktire

José Andrés

Loujain al-Hathloul

Ilwad Elman

Wa Lone

Yvonne Ridley

Hajer Sharief

Alexis Tsipras

Isaias Afwerki

Agnes Chow

Filippo Grandi

Yuan Longping

Mahbouba Seraj

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

Juan Carlos Jintiach

Joshua Wong

Ernest Moniz

DOGE

Kamala Harris

Noam Chomsky

International Fact-Checking Network

Manifold Markets

Justin Trudeau

Vladimir Putin

Aleksandr Lukashenko

Sam Altman

Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

Kim Jong Un

Abdullah Öcalan

Daniel Sheehan

Robert Kennedy Jr

@Krantz

Gustavo Petro

The Iranian protesters

Peacekeepers

Jimmy Lai

Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

Francesca Albanese

Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

Haitham bin Tariq Al Said

Any Kurdish person (or the Kurdish people

Shehbaz Sharif

44

25

6

6

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?

Mar 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13558

OptionProbability

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Peter MacKay

Jean Charest

Rona Ambrose

Scott Moe

Kevin O'Leary

Danielle Smith

Maxime Bernier

Stephen Harper

31

24

13

13

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.58%chance

8307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

47

Will Jon R. Moeller (CEO of Procter & Gamble) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 28, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.01%chance

5146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

93

New EmbeddingGemma (or equivalent) based on Gemma 4 in 2026?

Apr 3, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.91%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

1

Will "Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertaint..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 31, 9:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Do you think Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models are generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:22 AM

160

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