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Prediction markets for Money

Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?

Apr 17, 12:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

41.81%chance

8264001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

722

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.78%chance

3823987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2777

334

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

9.82%chance

132881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3567

412

Meta (Facebook) launches real money prediction market app by end of 2027?

Jun 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.48%chance

232238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?

Sep 29, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:29 AM

341911

OptionProbability

Extra phone charger

Waterproof shower speaker

Premium shower head

Rechargeable motion-sensor LED light (for closets, hallways, or under the bed)

New pillow

Shoe horn

100

65

61

60

58

39

Will there be a new denomination of coin money for the United States before the end of 2040?

Mar 27, 4:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.03%chance

221274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

947

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.17%chance

9959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

29705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

975

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