Money Talks News

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.68%chance

26902448745

OptionVotes

YES

14273

1378

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

YES

1816

552

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

1932

517

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 9, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11%chance

341962

OptionVotes

YES

262

100

Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?

Mar 29, 3:17 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

90.32%chance

221636

OptionVotes

YES

1369

893

The Moana-Off: Which Moana will make the most dough-ana? 🎥🌊👧

Feb 16, 2:26 PMAug 9, 6:59 AM

141616

OptionProbability

Moana 2 (2024)

Moana: Live Action (2025)

Moana (2016)

Will it be fashionable to care about money in 10 years?

Dec 26, 1:29 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

69.44%chance

7332

OptionVotes

YES

681

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

56.94%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

Money Talks News

Prediction markets for Money Talks

Prediction markets for Money Talks

Prediction markets for Money Talks

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?

The Moana-Off: Which Moana will make the most dough-ana? 🎥🌊👧

Will it be fashionable to care about money in 10 years?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

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