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Prediction markets for Money Talks

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.49%chance

25612232999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10617

2119

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

175492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10016

2817

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

437

In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 9, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.82%chance

341960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

102

Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?

Mar 29, 3:17 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

90.32%chance

221636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1369

893

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will I spend at least 10K USD trying to get a US visa by the end of 2026?

Jul 24, 3:18 AMDec 31, 7:00 AM

27.64%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

80

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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