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Prediction markets for Money Talks

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.93%chance

26572371508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13882

1435

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

7.99%chance

204547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

295

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?

Mar 29, 3:17 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

90.32%chance

221636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1369

893

Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?

Feb 8, 4:07 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

70.05%chance

191020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

70

53

51

37

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

When will MTG will start becoming less of a collectible assets ?

Apr 20, 2:43 PMApr 27, 2:43 PM

16.09%chance

281

OptionProbability

YES

NO

371

272

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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