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Prediction markets for Monopoly

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

1439

Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?

Aug 4, 4:16 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

4.74%chance

384128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4384

204

Which of these properties will get an official Monopoly board game release before EOY 2027?

Jan 19, 10:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

423166

OptionProbability

Wicked

Minecraft

Taylor Swift

Inside Out

Boruto

Jujutsu Kaisen

Doja Cat

Oppenheimer OR Barbenheimer

Demon Slayer

Neon Genesis Evangelion

Among Us

League of Legends

Argylle

Mr Beast

Hazbin Hotel

Palworld

Shovel Knight

Rainbow Six

Borderlands

Metal Gear Solid

Mean Girls

Dota 2

Half Life

Skibidi Toilet

Rationalussy

100

89

79

50

50

41

38

38

38

37

36

34

31

29

27

26

25

24

24

23

20

18

18

16

2

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

191027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

470

Will "EU and Monopoly on Violence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 11:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.95%chance

15372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

977

Breaking Google Play Store 30% monopoly by 2030

Mar 13, 11:02 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

67.12%chance

796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

215

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will McDonald's Monopoly return this year?

Feb 16, 4:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.83%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will McDonald’s Monopoly come back to the US before the year 2035?

Oct 29, 2:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.67%chance

434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

71

Does Google have an unfair monopoly on search?

Nov 7, 2:58 AM

220

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

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