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Prediction markets for Monopoly

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Which of these properties will get an official Monopoly board game release before EOY 2027?

Jan 19, 10:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

422984

OptionProbability

Wicked

Minecraft

Taylor Swift

Inside Out

Boruto

Jujutsu Kaisen

Doja Cat

Oppenheimer OR Barbenheimer

Demon Slayer

Neon Genesis Evangelion

Among Us

League of Legends

Argylle

Mr Beast

Hazbin Hotel

Palworld

Shovel Knight

Rainbow Six

Borderlands

Metal Gear Solid

Mean Girls

Dota 2

Half Life

Skibidi Toilet

Rationalussy

100

89

79

50

50

41

38

38

38

37

36

34

31

29

27

26

25

24

24

23

20

18

18

12

1

Will "EU and Monopoly on Violence" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 11:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?

Aug 4, 4:16 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

54.93%chance

26626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

931

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 11:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.12%chance

16560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

712

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

17538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

991

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.95%chance

15372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

977

Breaking Google Play Store 30% monopoly by 2030

Mar 13, 11:02 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

67.12%chance

796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

293

215

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will McDonald’s Monopoly come back to the US before the year 2035?

Oct 29, 2:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

72

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

Does Google have an unfair monopoly on search?

Nov 7, 2:58 AM

220

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