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Prediction markets for Monthly Active Users

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.34%chance

496394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2621

696

Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)

Dec 20, 11:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

541809

OptionProbability

Threads

Twitter / X

TikTok

LinkedIN

Instagram

72

17

9

2

0

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

201082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

799

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Jul 28, 5:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22802

OptionProbability

YouTube

Instagram

TikTok

WhatsApp

WeChat

Other

51

23

23

1

1

1

Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026?

Dec 10, 3:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23%chance

9396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.27%chance

10396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

7

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

Will Meta's metaverse have ≥100 million monthly active users on Dec 31, 2033?

Nov 18, 10:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.18%chance

12343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

151

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.37%chance

6144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

117

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

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