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Prediction markets for Monthly Active Users

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530231

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

Jul 24, 7:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12.82%chance

269201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

902

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.63%chance

466299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2549

703

Will Nostr reach 100,000 monthly active users in 2025?

Jan 27, 5:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.18%chance

92442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

406

ChatGPT reaches 1B monthly active users in 2025?

Aug 6, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.01%chance

161830

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

DeepSeek surpasses ChatGPT in monthly active users by September 7, 2025

Mar 11, 6:56 PMSep 7, 12:00 AM

1.83%chance

161493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

19

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Jul 28, 5:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19726

OptionProbability

YouTube

TikTok

Other

WhatsApp

Instagram

WeChat

64

31

2

1

1

1

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.47%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

875

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.36%chance

5134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

124

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

5112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025?

Jul 2, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.18%chance

890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

137

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