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Prediction markets for Monthly Active Users

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.7%chance

486306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2533

705

OpenAI announces 1B MAU or 1B WAU first?

Jan 7, 6:44 PMDec 31, 6:42 PM

172978

OptionProbability

>=1B Weekly Active Users

>=1B Monthly Active Users

Neither before EOY 2026

72

26

2

Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)

Dec 20, 11:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

541809

OptionProbability

Threads

Twitter / X

TikTok

LinkedIN

Instagram

72

17

9

2

0

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Jul 28, 5:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20737

OptionProbability

YouTube

TikTok

Other

WhatsApp

Instagram

WeChat

65

30

2

1

1

1

Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026?

Dec 10, 3:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24%chance

9391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will Meta's metaverse have ≥100 million monthly active users on Dec 31, 2033?

Nov 18, 10:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.18%chance

12343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

151

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.28%chance

9296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

11

Will Instagram have less than half a bilion active monthly users by 2028?

Apr 8, 7:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.22%chance

6162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.36%chance

5134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

124

Will Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?

Apr 8, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.88%chance

471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

63

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