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Prediction markets for Moonshot AI

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Aug 26, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

326102019

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

XAI

Meta

Deepseek

Safe Superintelligence Inc

Manus AI

Huggingfaces

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

stability.ai

Hugging Face

🤗 (hugging face)

HuggingFace (🤗)

~~Google~~ [SEE GOOGLE DEEPMIND]

Replit

Conjecture

Character.AI

Adept

NVIDIA

Apple

Midjourney

MosaicML

inflection.ai

Mistral AI

Moonshot AI

Huawei

Microsoft

ByteDance

ModelBest面壁智能

Singularity Net

High-Flyer

Alibaba

Reflection AI

Thinking Machines

Krantz

Other

35

32

14

7

5

5

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

402

Which AI model will win Kaggle‘s chess tournament?

Aug 4, 5:30 PMAug 11, 5:29 PM

271844

OptionProbability

Grok 4 (xAI)

o3 (OpenAI)

Gemini 2.5 Pro (Google)

o4-mini (OpenAI)

Gemini 2.5 Flash (Google)

Claude 4 Opus (Anthropic)

DeepSeek R1

Kimi k2 (Moonshot AI)

66

30

25

4

0

0

0

0

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.04%chance

201201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

686

Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

Jul 17, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

9731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

In December 2025, a model by which company will be the most used on OpenRouter LLM Rankings?

Feb 4, 11:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5725

OptionProbability

Google/DeepMind

OpenAI

Anthropic

Moonshot AI

Other

Cloaked model not revealed before resolution date

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Meta

Mistral

21

18

14

8

8

7

7

5

5

4

4

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